Thus far, Barack Obama has been subjected to virtually no media scrutiny and--much more importantly--has been the target of no Republican attacks. It is therefore ludicrous to make any claims about his ability to defeat John McCain. It's like saying the Dolphins will beat the Patriots provided the Patriots don't take the field.
John McCain and Hillary Clinton have been around for a long time. They have rich, compelling and complicated biographies full of many successes and not a few failures. The public knows who they are. Democrats who think they can turn McCain into a flip-flopper or Hillary into Miss Congeniality are living in a fantasy land. A few things can be done at the margins, but these candidates cannot redefine each other. They will try, of course, but the public will soon tire of it. A McCain-Clinton race will end up being more about issues than personas. The Democrat will win that race.
Barack Obama's campaign was going nowhere until Obamamania spread throughout the land. There's a very good reason for this--when the spotlight was on him alone, he couldn't deliver. His paper-thin resume and lack of a coherent agenda made people wonder what all the fuss was about. Only when he became bathed in the reflected light of his supporters' adoration did he become viable. His campaign has now reached the stratosphere, but it's the political equivalent of a Ponzi scheme. It's fundamentally about nothing--by design.
Obamamania will weaken. The media and the Republicans are going to put the spotlight back on the candidate. He has defined his movement, but he has not defined himself. I don't know what he's going to come up with, but it had better be good.
Just for the record.
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